Housing prices have never been higher.  Is this the time to buy, or the time to sell??

Mortgage lending in the U.S. is expected to drop 18.7% (I would bet it will be twice that much) in 2006 as borrowing costs rise, cutting into the demand for housing and mortgage refinances the helped drive the real estate boom, a mortgage industry trading group said on Tuesday.  The Mortgage Bankers Association, at it’s annual meeting, said it estimates mortgage lending will drop over a half trillion dollars compared to 2005.  The expected drop in mortgage lending likely will coincide with fewer home sales and will slow down the pace at which home prices rise, the group said.

The Silver Users Association (SUA), a group devoted to the conflicting goals of keeping silver prices low and keeping silver available for users, stunned the silver investing community last month by repeating the claims made by silver investors and analysts that the silver market is very tight and that any significant investor demand will create a shortage of silver.

current bullish supply and demand fundamentals as published (but not well publicized) by the silverinstitute.org and cpmgroup.com are that about 600 million ounces of silver are mined each year, while about 870 million ounces of silver are consumed by industry, jewelry, and photography.  The difference is largely met by recycling, and investor selling.  In 2004, investor selling ended as 40 million ounces of silver was purchased by investors throughout the year, which drove silver prices up from a low of $4.15 to a high of $8.40/oz.

This is the most informative silver article which lays out the most simple and fundamental supply/demand statistics.  This is huge.  Silver Users Fear Silver Shortage

You have to choose between trusting to the natural stability of gold and the natural stability of the honesty and intelligence of the members of the government. And, with due respect to these gentlemen, I advise you, as long as the capitalist system lasts, to vote for gold. –George Bernard Shaw

Greenspan appears to be a victim of the same lack of modesty as all central bankers throughout history have been. Every generation of central bankers seems to believe that they have not only learned from the mistakes of the past, but also imply that no new mistakes will be made. During World War I, the German Reichsbank’s central bankers — all educated men –, believed financing a war is ‘exogenous’ and non-inflationary to the economy; hyper-inflation a few years down the road proved them wrong. Nowadays, former Fed Governor and possible Greenspan successor, Ben Bernanke, has not ruled out throwing money out of helicopters to stimulate the U.S. economy; and Greenspan’s policies have contributed to the greatest financial imbalances in world financial history. And these are U.S. central bankers. What about Asian central bankers that were burned just a few years ago by a major currency crisis?

The U.S. economy has been driven by extracting cash out of ever more expensive assets; as demand for U.S. assets decrease, creditors may demand higher interest rates for their dollar holdings. The reduced demand for U.S. assets does not bode well for the frothy U.S. housing market. Greenspan has already forecast that the U.S. savings rate will increase - not because we are turning the U.S. into a nation of savers, but because equity extraction from homes will diminish (home equity extraction negatively influences the savings rate).

Ben Bernanke, current chairman of the administration’s council of economic advisors, is President Bush’s nominee to succeed Alan Greenspan as chairman of the Federal Reserve. We believe will see more fine tuning of monetary policy with potentially negative implications for the dollar. We have extensively commented on Bernanke for over a year:

• Bernanke is on record as a supporter of policy that seeks to manage the entire yield curve. See Is a Dollar Crisis Looming? (October 10, 2005); see also The Modern Command Economy: the 30-Year Bond is Returning (August 4, 2005)
• Bernanke is a supply side economist. See Greenspan: “We can guarantee Cash, but we cannot guarantee purchasing power!” (February 16, 2005)
• In my view, Bernanke uses communication seeking to manage expectations in lieu of transparency. See The Fed Embraces Public Perception in Place of Sound Monetary Policy (April 18, 2005)
• We comment on how Ben Bernanke is getting more influential in The Emperor’s New Clothes (October 6, 2004), and forecast that he will succeed Greenspan in Fed May Not Stop Inflation (August 18, 2005)
• We believe Bernanke promoted the plan to hand out $2,000 to hurricane victims. It is an indication of more micro-management to come. See China Is Open for Business: Will China’s growth eliminate inflation? (September 21, 2005)
• Let us not wrap up a discussion about “Helicopter Ben” without a reference to his infamous comments about throwing money out of helicopters. See China’s Basket of Currencies (July 26, 2005).

Refco, the world’s largest independant derivatives broker, has been turned upside down in a matter of weeks.  500 million missing here, 500 there, oh wait, I got the 500 million back!  Ok, so where was the 500 million?  This should be fun.  Unfortunately any article I read dealing with Refcos upcoming plasmic vaporization from the planet earth, so I will have to wait until someone actually tackles the story.  I bet Mr. Sinclair is all over it.  I know you can get the story on JSmineset.com, but let me warn you I can barely even follow these derivative transactions myself.  I can only tell you that they are there, and the D-bombs are the reason for the collapse.  You wouldn’t garner that much basic information from reading anything in the newspapers.  They call them futures options, which they are, but they mislead.  If they are just simple futures options, how can you create 325 trillion dollars of them?  I hope we never find out, yet I know it is inevitable. 

What has happened is equal to a bank run, Refco has banned any clients from taking over 30% of what is in their accounts.  All trading in it’s stock has been halted, which has likewise fallen from over 20 to less than 7 in the last couple days.     Is this the dreaded daisy chain’s first domino?

Interestingly enough, the ad in the google banner on the top right hand of this blog page should read “Invest through Refco, a leader in futures markets.”  R.I.P.refco

U.S. Newswire : Releases : “ISRA: United Nations Report Validates Old Adage…”A report released this week by the United Nations confirms what law-abiding Americans have known for quite some time. That being that criminals prefer victims who cannot fight back

Abolishing the USA • “military and law enforcement cooperation between all three countries”;
• “an exchange of personnel that bring Canadians and Mexicans into the Department of Homeland Security”; and
• “temporary migrant worker programs expanded with full mobility of labor between the three countries in the next five years.”

and in relation to this story…

Bush, Rove Press Congress on Illegal-Worker Proposal - Los Angeles Times

U.S. Official Urges Greater Economic Integration in the Americas

UK will not join any attack on Iran, says British minister - Irna

Itis a known fact the Iran did indeed harbor some or most of the 9-11 hijackers, supporting them logistically and providing phony passports.  It is a known fact that Iran is really, FOR REAL, seeking nuclear weapons.  It is a known fact that the rulers of Iran, the world’s only major “Islamic Theocracy” were one of a hardly handful of nations to directly recognize the Taliban/afghanistan as a legitimate country.(the others being the UAE united arab emmirates, and saudi arabia)  Do you really think it’s possible America can take on Iran, (under Bushs insistence of reasons to invade Iraq) without our main militarial allies?  Which gives me a revelation….Iraq can invade Iran!!!!!!  oh wait, weren’t there 2 bombings in Iran today?  I noticed one hit the capital Tehran, and 2 minutes later a bomb exploded in the South in a city I have never heard of.  I only noticed it because it seemed to be just on border with Iraq.  A city also close to the border of Iran, is Bosrah, where the British contribution to the allied invasion is the strongest (alos because of historical ties to the south, from Bosrah to what is historically recently known as Kuwait, from its imperial days, which was actually carved out of Iraq by a British General)  I have read a few stories recently about Americans disguised as Arabs setting off some car bombs in Russia, and I posted that one.  But I have also read others, and personally dismissed the sources, although I do admit I could have spent 5 hours reading all the sources sources but chose not to.  Other reports have indicated Birtish double agents setting some bombs off themselves, even prompting the so called “al-qaida in Iraq” to deny credit for some of these bombings and went so far as to blame the British and American spies.  I have not posted them because I didn’t think there was enough evidence or that the sources were justifiable.  But it is curious in connection to the russian story.  Can we control Iraq into inading Iran for us?  I think we can.  I bet it was the administrations plan the whole time….yeah that’s the ticket!  It looks like Bosra is just on the other side of the border from where the bomb exploded in iran.  Anyhew

for all you people who think Abu-Gharaib was like Ernest goes to Camp and had underwear pulled over their heads….you are about to know the truth.  I bet most of you won’t even look.  See the underwear incident is all you can handle.  I’m talking about people being forced to slam themselves into a wall until they knock themselves out (kinda like a husband who beats his wife but makes sure not to leave any bruises), Wire shock treatment to male and female genitalia, homosexual rape, and over 3,000 other pieces of video, audio, and pictures.  Do patriotic tough on terror conservatives like rush limbaugh, who routinely downplayed the abu-gharaib prisoner mistreatment scandal, and who also knew what really happened, go to heaven?  Is he in touch with humanity?  Does he realize these acts are evil?  Should not these acts be condemned by Mr. Limbaugh, who routinely expects muslims to condemn islamic terrorist attacks?  Are you a hypocrite, Mr. Limbaugh.  I anxiously await to listen to your show, and see how you will cram the BS back into the bull.  I know you can do it!  U Da Man

US judge orders release of Iraq abuse pictures

By Geneviève Roberts

Published: 30 September 2005

If the war on terror is so real and so dangerous and so costly to fight, WHY DON’T YOU PIGS IN WASHINGTON USE YOUR DAMNED PATRIOT ACT TO FIGHT TERRORISM????  Why waste time on anything else? 

 ACLU sues Homeland Security for arresting, spying on vegans who protested ham

The Raw Story | ACLU sues Homeland Security for arresting, spying on vegans who protested ham