You have to choose between trusting to the natural stability of gold and the natural stability of the honesty and intelligence of the members of the government. And, with due respect to these gentlemen, I advise you, as long as the capitalist system lasts, to vote for gold. –George Bernard Shaw
Greenspan appears to be a victim of the same lack of modesty as all central bankers throughout history have been. Every generation of central bankers seems to believe that they have not only learned from the mistakes of the past, but also imply that no new mistakes will be made. During World War I, the German Reichsbank’s central bankers — all educated men –, believed financing a war is ‘exogenous’ and non-inflationary to the economy; hyper-inflation a few years down the road proved them wrong. Nowadays, former Fed Governor and possible Greenspan successor, Ben Bernanke, has not ruled out throwing money out of helicopters to stimulate the U.S. economy; and Greenspan’s policies have contributed to the greatest financial imbalances in world financial history. And these are U.S. central bankers. What about Asian central bankers that were burned just a few years ago by a major currency crisis?
The U.S. economy has been driven by extracting cash out of ever more expensive assets; as demand for U.S. assets decrease, creditors may demand higher interest rates for their dollar holdings. The reduced demand for U.S. assets does not bode well for the frothy U.S. housing market. Greenspan has already forecast that the U.S. savings rate will increase - not because we are turning the U.S. into a nation of savers, but because equity extraction from homes will diminish (home equity extraction negatively influences the savings rate).
Bernanke – On the Road to Disaster?
Axel Merk
Ben Bernanke, current chairman of the administration’s council of economic advisors, is President Bush’s nominee to succeed Alan Greenspan as chairman of the Federal Reserve. We believe will see more fine tuning of monetary policy with potentially negative implications for the dollar. We have extensively commented on Bernanke for over a year:
- Bernanke is on record as a supporter of policy that seeks to manage the entire yield curve. See Is a Dollar Crisis Looming? (October 10, 2005); see also The Modern Command Economy: the 30-Year Bond is Returning (August 4, 2005)
- Bernanke is a supply side economist. See Greenspan: “We can guarantee Cash, but we cannot guarantee purchasing power!” (February 16, 2005)
- In my view, Bernanke uses communication seeking to manage expectations in lieu of transparency. See The Fed Embraces Public Perception in Place of Sound Monetary Policy (April 18, 2005)
- We comment on how Ben Bernanke is getting more influential in The Emperor’s New Clothes (October 6, 2004), and forecast that he will succeed Greenspan in Fed May Not Stop Inflation (August 18, 2005)
- We believe Bernanke promoted the plan to hand out $2,000 to hurricane victims. It is an indication of more micro-management to come. See China Is Open for Business: Will China’s growth eliminate inflation? (September 21, 2005)
- Let us not wrap up a discussion about “Helicopter Ben” without a reference to his infamous comments about throwing money out of helicopters. See China’s Basket of Currencies (July 26, 2005).
